Author’s
Dr. Sandeep Tripathi
Col. Manoj Kumar Singh
Doklam in 2017 and Galwan in 2020 and now the Tawang clash are the flashpoints that demonstrate Xi Jinping‘s aggressive posture. On 9th Dec 2022, clashes took place between the Indian troops and the Chinese PLA in the Yang Tse area in the Tawang Sector of Arunachal Pradesh. New Delhi underscored the courage and maturity with which the Indian soldiers on the ground contested the PLA’s intrusion in a firm and resolute manner. As reiterated by the Indian side, every time during the Ukraine-Russia war, all issues must be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue, respecting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all sides and by rule-based international order. To add to it, PM Modi’s statement assumes importance once again that this is ‘Not an Era for Wars’, complemented by his earlier message to the Chinese that this is not an ‘Era for Expansionism’ either. Let us understand the factors that drive Beijing’s anxieties in Tawang.
Tawang’s Geo-strategic Calculus & China’s Anxieties: Arunachal Pradesh acts like a protective shield to India’s northeast region. At an altitude of 17,000 feet, The Yangtse area holds immense strategic importance. Tawang, the north-western district of Arunachal, assumes enhanced significance in the light of it falling at the international border tri-junction of India, Bhutan & China. Thus, it shares geographical contiguity with Bhutan and Tibet, providing a strategic entry into India’s north-eastern region. The following points fuelled the Chinese anxieties leading to the recent clashes:-
India and the US have been successfully conducting joint military exercises called ‘Yudh Abhyas’ annually for the past 18 years, with the aim of exchanging best practices, tactics, techniques, and procedures between the Armies of the two great democracies. These exercises aim to strengthen the cooperation and joint commitments of the US & India to the Indo-Pacific region, improving synergy, and interoperability and taking their defense partnership to new horizons. The last exercise in the USA was conducted at the Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson, Alaska (USA) in October 2021. However, the 18th edition which concluded on 3rd Dec 22, in the Auli district of Uttarakhand, in the very backyard of China, evoked strong objections from them. The same was immediately butted strongly by the Indian side, literally undermining the Chinese geopolitical clout. Pentagon press secretary, Pat Ryder’s statement that China has been strongly asserting itself, mainly targeting its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, slammed the Chinese expansionism attempts strongly.
The ever-increasing forced lockdowns in China, due to a surge in COVID-19 infections, leading to open demonstrations by the public (unheard of earlier), melt-down in real estate, the crisis in banking sectors, slowing growth trajectory and sluggish economy and growing international diplomatic prescription has probably forced Xi to divert the internal audiences towards external issues on the borders. This instigation could also be to keep this decades old border issue active and burning for the same reason.
India recently assumed the Presidency of G-20 nations for one year and has been showcasing this opportunity to enhance its image. Moreover, India’s growing geopolitical clout was clearly recognized when, it is widely believed, India persuaded all the member countries at Bali to issue a joint statement. Does China seek to disrupt India’s role in this very important year by creating barriers of sorts? Is it to check the ever-growing influence of India on the world stage? Whatever the reasons, the Chinese are known to play their cards well, only suiting the Communist Party’s agendas. They may be, were merely testing Indian defense forces’ operational preparedness and responses. PLA could also be trying to assess the readiness of newly activated military bases on the Indian side. Whatever, be their motive, they got a heavy Indian steel fist in their nose since our responses on the land, sky, and sea were equally swift. Perhaps, the present Government dispensation could be given credit for their clarity in strongly responding at all fronts, be it diplomatic or military. Surely, it was not an incidental minor patrolling clash of routine nature since it had over 300 PLA troops participating. In the present circumstances, normalization seems to be a far cry and both countries need to work towards de-escalation of the situation at the LAC, both in Ladakh and in the east.
What next to Counter the Dragon: It is widely believed that intertwined economies play a crucial role in diffusing all types of conflicts. However, Kohane and Nye’s ‘Complex interdependence’ theory does not fit in the New Delhi-Beijing calculus. New Delhi should be wary of all Chinese products and should continue to work towards a reduction in their imports. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry data shows that India’s imports from China increased sharply after the Galwan clash. In the first three quarters of 2022, New Delhi imported $89.66 billion worth of goods from China which is the highest record in any year. To bane, Chinese apps were not decisive. This is a discouraging sign and our present dispensation must do something concrete to deal with this.
An offensive response is the only way to contain and thwart the Chinese aggressions. New Delhi needs bolder steps that ensure no more incursions. Italian Philosopher Machiavelli wrote that “it is better to be feared than loved”. India must continue to strongly upgrade all its border defensive and offensive infrastructures, as it has done in the past 6-8 years including the 2000-kilometer Arunachal Frontier Highway which will run parallel to the LAC. Our troops definitely have a psychological edge over the Chinese soldiers’ war-fighting capabilities. India’s strategic policymakers must respond to the Chinese salami-slice strategy
Diplomatically, New Delhi should encircle growing China’s influence in the evolving world order. Chinese ‘Expansionist Policy’ has been condemned all over the world, especially in its neighborhood. It has border issues with almost all its neighbors from the Himalayan borders to the South China Sea. The QUAD (The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue- QSD), is one such initiative wherein strategic security dialogues take place between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. QUAD definitely goes to assertively undermine the Chinese influence in the global south. Beijing views it as a counter to Chinese economic and military influence and termed it “Asian NATO“.
Conclusion:
China’s expansionism is a serious threat to the entire security structure in the Indian Ocean Region. Imagine that China has territorial disputes with over 23 countries! This, surprisingly, includes Indonesia which is not even geographically contiguous with China’s borders. It is only Pakistan that has chosen to dance to its tune with its future in the doldrums. New Delhi principally believes that talks are the only way forward. After the 16th round of talks on 17 July 22, we all look forward to the 17th round of talks soon between both the military’s top brass. However, talks and tensions cannot co-exist. Economically, Indian diplomacy has to navigate a crystal policy on trade with China. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry data reveals that the trade deficit with China is registered as $73.31 billion in 2021-22. Now, the ball is in the Chinese court. We must first witness some Confidence Building Measures from the Chinese side. Or the relations are only destined to go southwards, creating a situation of uneasy, reluctant hand-shakes in the future as well, like in Bali during the chance meeting between the two giant nation’s premiers.
Dr. Sandeep Tripathi, Founder President, Forum for Global Studies, India’s Delhi-based Think Tank, New Delhi.
Col. Manoj Kumar Singh, Defence Expert & Director Research, Forum for Global Studies, India’s Delhi-based Think Tank, New Delhi.