On 18th December 2022, the Forum for Global Studies, New Delhi, a multidisciplinary global think tank, organized an exclusive interview on “Indo-China Faceoff: The Tawang Clash” by Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM VSM, former assistant chief of air staff (HR), New Delhi and Former Director General (Air Force Naval Housing Board). Currently, he is an advisor to Union Public Service Commission (UPSC), New Delhi. He was joined in this discussion by Col. Manoj Kumar Singh (Retd.), Honorary Director of Research, Forum for Global Studies, New Delhi. The session began with a brief introduction of the Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM VSM and a welcome note by Col. Manoj Kumar Singh. He introduced the topic and initiated the session with the first question. He enquired how Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari sees the increasing anxiety between India and China, especially after the Galwan clash when relations have become tense. Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM began by stating the political stature of China since the 1950s and its border relations with India. He points to certain internal problems in China, mainly due to Covid-19 and other issues, including Taiwan. He further states that Ladakh occupies most of the border with China, and India has successfully built infrastructure in the region. He felt that Tawang and Galwan border clashes took India by surprise as the nation adopts no confrontation policy until enunciated by the other party. He opined that the major problem is near the Bhutan border because of the lack of sufficient infrastructure due to winter.
He commented upon the enormous complexities in Indo-China relations despite economic interdependence. He points to significant Chinese investment in India by quoting the example of Paytm. He argues that India’s drug and fertilizer industry inputs are largely imported from China. Furthermore, he highlights certain crucial points, like uniting Tibetans through monasteries in Tawang, which may counteract Chinese aggression. He also states the importance of the geo-strategic location of the Yangtze, the international tri-junction of Bhutan, India, and China. He expressed that India has to play a balanced role in the case of bilateral relations and gradually reduce its economic dependence on China.
Col. Manoj Kumar Singh asked about the opinion of Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari on China’s expansionist policy. Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM replied that China has ambitions to expand its territories. However, it has only occupied a few islands in Taiwan and Mongolia. He states that the only success China could find was on the Indian border in 1962. Hence, he argues that ambition exists but the expansionist approach of China is a massive failure. To this, Col. Singh moved to the next question and enquired about the multiple fronts on which India should act to counter Chinese belligerence. Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM assures that Indian defense is well equipped, especially the Indian Air Force, and China will think twice before engaging in armed conflict with India. He is cautious about the presence of China in territorial waters near Indian borders, but he applauds the Indian navy and feels that good relations with Vietnam & Indonesia will assist India. Col. Singh asked another question if India and China should maintain friendly relations to contract the belligerence by the USA and western countries. To which Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM replied that it is difficult to comprehend why China is creating disturbances in the border because it will need India’s assistance in supplanting the USA as the global leader. So, he feels that India and China should be on common ground, wherein India should not come as second to China. He feels that India and China’s cooperation will decide the future of the global order.
Mr. Vivek Kumar, Executive Editor, Forum for Global Studies, New Delhi, proceeds with whether India has remained too optimistic in the past in case of bilateral relations with China. Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM replied by giving the trajectory of India’s inefficient policy while dealing with border infrastructure, lack of utilizing resources, and economic overdependence on China, which delayed its growth for various decades. However, he is optimistic that the current administration is taking the right steps to enlarge the country’s image in the global world order.
Col. Singh commented upon the existing hurdles faced by the Indian army. He points to the fact that the current defense budget deficit is 5 billion dollars. He cautioned that the Indian government should change its agenda and become ‘Atma-Nirbhar’ in its defense needs. With that, Dr. Sandeep Tripathi, Founder, and President, of Forum for Global Studies, thanked Air Vice Marshall O.P. Tiwari AVSM for his valuable insights and views on the topic, which would go a long way in assisting the policymakers, academicians as well as practitioners of global affairs.