A new multipolar reality in Africa and its implications in the changing dynamics of global politics
Geostrategic significance of Africa in global politics in the post-Cold War era
The post-Cold War era might be viewed as a watershed moment for Africa, as it regained prominence in international politics amid great power rivalry. This is because major and rising powers have begun to approach African countries through enhanced foreign policy approaches and cooperation platforms. Several factors contribute to this relevance. The first relates to the availability of natural resources including oil, gas, minerals, and arable land. Major and rising powers were eager to secure these resources to meet their energy and economic needs. The United States, EU member states, China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Gulf countries have shown an increased interest in accessing African resources by executing bilateral summit under the auspices of the African Union. China is pioneer in this regard through FOCAC; however, as a domino affect others followed the Chinese footprint, and now Africa has a bilaterial summit with the United States, the European Union, Russia, India, Turkey, and Gulf countries and many others.
Another factor that contributes to Africa’s inclusion in global politics is the introduction of a financial market system into the global economy. As capitalism became the dominant economic system, the market emerged as an important factor in defining superpower status. As a result, states began to pay attention to their markets in order to optimize their comparative benefits, thereby realizing that the market determines its fortune. By then, major and rising powers realized that the financial market could be their best friend or their most formidable opponent in their goal of global supremacy. This structural change aided Africa’s integration into global politics with a significant voice, as competing powers sought cordial diplomatic relations with African countries to obtain their votes in various multilateral political flora as well as Africa’s markets for their industrial products, thereby realizing their global superpower status.
The last, but not the least, reason was Africa’s geostrategic position. Geographically, Africa is strategically suited to closely monitor and influence international trade routes via the Red Sea-Suez Canal shipping corridor. Controlling this maritime corridor provides leverage for major or emerging powers to achieve global political and economic supremacy, as the continent is an adjacent waterway that connects Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. This provides a competitive edge in controlling vital marine checkpoints, such as the Bal-el-Mandeb Strait, which is critical for maintaining firm control over international trade activities. As a result of these geostrategic dynamics, Africa has emerged as a key factor in global politics since the post-Cold War period next to the Indo-Pacific region.
Examining the evolving multipolarity in Africa and its implications in the changing dynamics of global politics
Since the turn of the millennium, Africa became epicenter of geopolitical competition between major and rising powers, with all powers actively selling their agendas to African governments through their summits. As a result, scholars have asserted that Africa has increasingly become a geopolitical hotspot for various competing powers, who aspire to have a significant share of influence on the continent. This evolving geopolitical dynamic has recently been referred to as a new “scramble of Africa.” Therefore, intense competition among the United States, China, Russia, the European Union, Turkey, and the Gulf States to gain influence in Africa has heightened Africa’s significance in the evolving dynamics of global politics. The emerging multipolar reality in Africa has significant implications for the dynamics of global politics. As the world transitions from a unipolar to a multipolar system, Africa’s geopolitical significance is expected to increase, given its growing youth population, abundant natural resources, markets, and other interconnected global challenges, such as climate change, global warming, terrorism, and pirates.
This shift in power dynamics is not unique to Africa, as the international system is also undergoing profound transformation, with major powers, rising powers, and transnational organizations adapting to the emerging multipolar structure. In an increasingly multipolar world, the power dynamics in international aid are also changing, leading to complex and continuous shifts that require careful consideration and policy analysis. This is because the majority of the actors in the aid industry have significant power. Shifts in aid dynamics threaten to undermine the power of each actor, resulting in rivalry to outweigh one another and maintain their comparative advantage. Furthermore, the contemporary configuration of the multipolar world raises the growing importance of the rising and middle powers in balancing the extra-territorial claims of major powers, which often instigates a major war in history. This scenario indicates that a shift towards a more multipolar reality is inevitable in Africa and elsewhere in the world.
This multipolar configuration has brought both opportunities and threats to African countries. Due to the rivalry between these powers to execute better cooperation with Africa, they came-up with various offers. For instance, with the support of the United States, India, and China and later with some EU member countries, African countries under the AU framework joined the G20, whereby African countries shared global decision-making opportunities regarding their fate. Corresponding to this addition, BRICS also allowed Ethiopia and Egypt to join the BRICS Plus platform, as these emerging bloc countries want to expand their share of influence in Africa. This decision appears to be a calculated one, as China, India, and Russia all need to have a proper footprint in Africa for their future expansion. Additionally, they wanted to create a diplomatic crack between the West, Ethiopia, and Egypt. This is because both Ethiopia and Egypt have strong and long-held diplomatic ties and military cooperation with the West, particularly with the United States. On the other hand, with the invitation and full backing of the United States, Kenya joined as a major non-NATO ally as the first country in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective behind this nomination was to make Kenya a deep strategic and security ally to Washington, as other powers started threatening the longstanding interests of the United States across the continent.
Therefore, the shift of the global power balance towards a multipolar fractured the international system, resulting in recklessness among major powers to maintain global order; rather, all are competing for scoring points instead of aspiring for collective interests. This has had a significant impact on foreign relations in Africa. This is because under the auspices of the African Union, African countries have unilateral summits of these powers. These powers offer African states new forms of cooperation that potentially enhance their ability to shape external ties. However, this diplomatic tie leads to overlapping interests among these powers. This is because as national interests overlap between states, the interest of one major power will have a spillover effect on the others. This will make the continent a vicious circle of geopolitical battleground.
Concluding remarks
The post-Cold War period makes Africa an important actor in the international political flora. Similarly, the ear dragged the continent to an influx of great power competition, as the system allowed them to approach African countries unilaterally or bilaterally. These political dynamics uplifted the relevance of each African state vote in the UN and other multilateral floras. However, these dynamics also push Africa to lose neutrality to maintain its comparative political advantages, as its member countries are joining diametrically opposing blocs. Therefore, the future looks gloomy and requires careful examination of each tie to maintain neutrality. As we have seen, the actions and reactions of major powers against the Russian-Ukraine war, the Isreal-Palestine war, the protracted civil war in Myanmar and Ethiopia, they all act recklessly as national interest started driving their action, instead of humanity.
Author: Tewodros Woldearegay is a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and International Affairs, Lingnan University, Hong Kong.
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