Connectivity being the urge of globalization, the concernment of new and alternate trade routes is of crucial importance to the states. The search of alternative trade routes to attain extended and secure reach is expressive of multifarious exertions. An assertive and aggressive China with its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is throwing ignition to many geo-political hauls. In this sequel The Forum for Global Studies (FGS), India’s multi-disciplinary think tank based in New Delhi organized a podcast on “Can International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) be a Counter to China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI), on 20th May, 2023. The session was adorned by an eminent voice Mr. Nima Khorrami, Research Associate at The Arctic Institute, Washington DC, USA. The session was moderated by Ms. Nandini Ghosh, Research Fellow at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Forum for Global studies, New Delhi, India.
Stating about the realization of the INSTC as an alternative trade route, he narrated three key points. Firstly, the work to operate INSTC is going on since 2000 and unfortunately the progress is meager, which speaks of the geo-political influence of the INSTC. Secondly, it is potent of realizing enormous benefits in terms of its ability to evolve as a counter to BRI, nevertheless the huge disadvantage lies in the fact that it provides the access to an alternative trade avenue to the arch foes of the west Tehran and Moscow, which will not be welcomed by the west in this current configuration of the geo-politics. Thirdly, the presence of a contradictory assessment between New Delhi on one side and Tehran and Moscow on the other about China’s ambitious BRI. As New Delhi recites BRI as colonial but the view is not shared by other two. So, there is an utter internal disagreement, whether INSTC is a complement to BRI or an alternate to it. The lacking financial heft in realization of INSTC is a contention behind, some projects or investments can be taken forward but the full realization of it is oracular, given the existing geo-political configuration.
How the gaining commercial presence of Beijing is beneficial to the aspirations of Central Asia, especially when Moscow is staggering? Responding here, Mr. Khorrami articulated China is no longer there to only extract the mineral or energy resources rather an enabling partner in their drive towards development. Extracting from the financial vacuum, Beijing is selling their model in manufacturing, 5G, green energy and in others. It is signing long term energy deals at discounted rates and assuredly benefitting from a weaker Russia. Beijing is not keen in replacing Russia as a security guarantor in Central Asia, as the incentives lies in commerce rather in politics of the region. The reshaped power dynamics has turned many equations, as Moscow becoming affirmative regarding the presence of Beijing in the Arctic, though it remained very much against of it in recent past. Nonetheless it is certain that this growing commercial involvement of Beijing will drag them to the politics of it in coming time, it’s an evolving and expanding conundrum to be witnessed. The diplomatic maneuvering of different power centers is the telling instance of the unraveling geo-economics. Ambitious BRI gives Beijing an alternative to lessen its heavy dependence on ‘Strait of Mallacca’ and have a different way to connect to Europe. In this sequel, the exertions to contain China has to take into account the side effects of it. As it is legible, that the interests of QUAD are not aligned in many aspects. Also, Beijing wanting to bankroll everything with financial heft isn’t viable in the long run.
How India’s role is this evolving power dynamics to be accentuated? Responding here Mr. Khorrami stated that New Delhi has more acceptable and better reach to the corridors of power both at the West and Moscow, which Beijing Lacks. In this scenario New Delhi can play the role of mediator to secure burning the objectives of the time. At the end the vote of thanks was offered by Dr. Sandeep Tripathi, President of The Forum for Global Studies (FGS).
Note: This event report is written by Nandini Ghosh, Research Fellow at The Forum for Global Studies (FGS).