On 29th June 2022, the Forum for Global Studies, New Delhi, a multidisciplinary global think tank, hosted a distinguished Lecture Series on “Energy, Environment and Geopolitics” where our guest speaker was Ambassador J.K Tripathi. Ambassador Tripathi served as the former Consul General of India in São Paulo, and Ambassador of India to Zimbabwe. He was joined in this discussion by Col. Manoj Kumar Singh (Retd.), Honorary Director of Research, Dr Sandeep Tripathi, the Founder President of FGS and Mr. Mayank Singh, special defence correspondent at The New Indian Express, New Delhi. The lecture started with the brief introduction of Ambassador Tripathi by Col. Manoj Kumar Singh (Retd.) which was also seconded by Mr. Mayank Singh.
Ambassador J.K Tripathi started the lecture by pointing to the fact that Russia-Ukraine war has revealed the hidden realities and exposed the weaknesses of major players in the conflict, mainly Russia, Ukraine, EU and NATO. It has also highlighted how fragile the economic order that prevails in this interdependent world. This conflict has resulted in an acute shortage of energy & food due to the interdependence of nations on each other. It is ironic that during the first hundred days of the Ukraine invasion, the EU itself had imported energy worth 69 billion dollars. This volume of imports clearly points to the fact that the EU is not able to make a cohesive policy decision to together bring down Russia on its knees. There are more than 8,000 sanctions against Russia now, but they do not seem to affect Russia in a substantial manner in the short term but it’s detrimental impacts in the long term are yet to be seen. On the question of how India should react in the present situation, he explained that today’s diplomacy is solely driven by economics and trade. Hence, India is justified in securing its economic interests. India imports over 85.5% of its energy from more than 50 disparate countries, major countries amongst them are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Nigeria and USA.
Majorly, owing to the demand and Supply shortages, effected by the current war, crude prices went up from about 80 dollars per barrel to the extreme of 135 dollars per barrel. Despite USA’s express request, the Saudis refused to increase their oil production. This was certainly a show of defiance by Saudi Arabia especially when there was an acute shortage of energy. Sanctions are already imposed on Iran and Venezuela by the United States which was exporting a large chunk of crude oil in the global markets. After the sanctions were imposed on Russia, it offered to export crude oil at 30 percent discount to China and India. China and India are the largest and the second largest importers of crude oil in the world.
Ambassador Tripathi also revealed that Indian crude oil import is generally from the north-south corridor and out of 18 refineries that we have in India, only six are on the eastern coast and none of them are fully geared to treat the Russian crude which is of heavier variety. So he underscored the need for setting up new refineries or to upgrade the existing ones. He also referred to the Chennai maritime corridor, for which in 2019, PM Modi pledged a billion-dollar funding but it hasn’t fructified yet.
He also pointed out that Russia is not a member of the International Solar Alliance whereas India took that initiative and it is already harnessing solar energy in a big way. India has not reached the goal, but one should see that in order to fulfil the promises of taking India to a 5 Trillion economy by 2025, it will have to find more energy sources. So, what are the other options available to India? Iran, Venezuela, where ONGC Videsh Limited has already been operating, and Gulf countries can be other major providers of oil to India based on their mutual interests.
India is already a big market for Gulf countries. Earlier, during the COVID-19 pandemic, India emerged as a major medicine supplier to the world. Lately, India has emerged as a big food supplier as well. However, India doesn’t have unlimited stocks to spare and it has to keep its own national interest supreme. There has been a steady friendship between India & Russia for over 70 years. The Rupee-Ruble Trade Agreement was already in place from 1950 to 1990. It was discontinued in 1990 by Russia since it was anxious to have more and more foreign currency. So, he pointed out that Russia-India relationships are not so fragile that it could turn into animosity anytime soon. He also pointed to the current situation where geopolitical equations are fast changing.
He also indicated that more than 54 countries abstained during the voting in the UN General Assembly that shows emergence of a new Bloc of sorts which is neo non-aligned, led by India. So, India has not only emerged as a regional power but is also transforming into a global power. Mr. Mayank Singh supplemented with his remark that widening canvas of discussion has truly made the lecture interesting and thanked Ambassador J.K Tripathi for the same.
An interesting thing in the Indian foreign policy which has emerged is that India is following the policy of de-hyphenation when it comes to relations between different warring factions and quoted the example of Israel-Palestine. For instance, when Netanyahu came to India few years back, there was a slight fear that Palestine will be red with anger against India but then India was able to explain its position to convince Palestinians.
Mr. Mayank Singh thanked Ambassador J.K Tripathi for narrating the lecture in a story form that was very convincing. Taking the discussion further Col. Manoj Kumar Singh (Retd.) brought out that it was truly a very illuminating discussion and asked if the China-Russia friendship and their added closeness during war, is in anyway going to bring out normalization and peace to our Sino-Indian borders? To this Ambassador Tripathi replied by stating that China is cornered at so many places, viz Mongolia, Hong Kong and South China Sea, that it can ill-afford a conventional war with India.
In his closing remarks, Mr. Mayank Singh pointed that there is a new fleet of US Navy in the Indo-Pacific region and US plans to transfer submarine technology to Australia which might enrage Russia. He also said that people want India to mediate in the war but India has avoided that. India is busy looking towards fulfilling its energy security requirements, geopolitical balance and quad re-structuring.
Dr. Sandeep Tripathi thanked Ambassador J.K Tripathi for delivering an insightful lecture which has inherent importance for all actors including policy makers, academicians as well as practitioners. He further thanked Mr. Mayank Singh and Col. Manoj Kumar Singh (Retd.) for moderating the event eloquently.