Title: India-China Border Dispute
Host: Forum For Global Studies
Guest Speaker: Commodore Anil Jai Singh
The conversation between Cmde. Anil Jai Singh and Dr. Sandeep Tripathi offers a thorough and nuanced perspective on the ongoing tensions between India and China, both along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and in the broader maritime domain. The dialogue covers a spectrum of issues, beginning with the diplomatic interactions between India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart, and extending into the broader implications for India’s strategy in countering China’s maritime expansion.
Diplomatic Engagement and Border Tensions
Dr. Tripathi opens by asking Cmde. Singh to assess the significance of two meetings held between Indian and Chinese officials in July 2023. These meetings occurred against the backdrop of escalating tensions, notably the Galwan clashes in 2020 and subsequent confrontations in December 2022. Dr. Tripathi seeks insight into whether there is any genuine hope for cooperation and peace between the two nations.
Cmde. Singh’s response is direct. He notes that China has historically used tactics to keep India under pressure, and this trend continues. From a strategic perspective, China benefits from the terrain, as much of the disputed border region consists of a plateau on China’s side, while India faces the challenge of defending mountainous areas. He argues that if China had any real intention of restoring the pre-2020 status quo, it would have already taken steps toward doing so.
Cmde. Singh emphasizes that the Chinese military has consistently inched forward over the years, waiting to see how India reacts. Before 2020, India’s response to Chinese incursions was often muted, but the Galwan clashes marked a significant shift. India began responding more assertively, occupying key positions that put Chinese forces under pressure. This new stance marks a departure from India’s previous approach, which was largely reactive.
China’s Expansionist Mindset
One of the key points raised by Cmde. Singh is China’s long-term strategy of altering global perceptions. In 2022, China released a new map, which extended its territorial claims to include large parts of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing refers to as “Southern Tibet.” Cmde. Singh warns that while this may seem like a simple cartographic change, it carries significant implications. Generations of Chinese citizens will grow up learning from maps that show Indian territory as part of China, thereby reinforcing a narrative that India is occupying Chinese land.
This, Cmde. Singh argues, is part of a broader effort by China to shift the narrative and perception of borders and territory in its favor. Indian diplomacy, however, has become more aggressive in countering this, with India refusing to participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) due to sovereignty concerns. While India engages with China in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, it does so on its own terms, maintaining its strategic autonomy.
Maritime Domain: The Key Battlefield
While much of the current focus is on the land border, Cmde. Singh believes that the real contest between India and China will unfold in the maritime domain. The next decade, he argues, will see critical developments in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Economically, the Indian Ocean will be the key space where China and India’s interests clash, and this will determine the balance of power in the region.
Cmde. Singh outlines China’s growing maritime capabilities, noting that China now possesses the world’s largest navy, with more than 350 ships, surpassing even the U.S. in terms of numbers. China also boasts the largest shipbuilding capacity, the largest coastguard, and the largest fishing fleet in the world. This makes China an established maritime power, whereas India, in Cmde. Singh’s view, is still primarily a naval power, lacking the integrated maritime ecosystem that China has developed.
India, however, is taking steps to address this imbalance. Cmde. Singh points to Project Sagarmala, which aims to enhance India’s port infrastructure. The commissioning of the Vizhinjam port as a trans-shipment hub is particularly significant, as it allows India to control more of the shipping lanes that pass through its waters. Until now, much of India’s cargo had to be trans-shipped through foreign ports like Dubai, Singapore, or Colombo. By establishing Vizhinjam as a trans-shipment hub, India can exert greater influence over international shipping routes, thereby increasing its strategic leverage.
China, meanwhile, is pursuing a similar strategy through its “String of Pearls” approach, building ports in strategic locations across the Indian Ocean. This gives China the ability to control key shipping lanes and potentially alter the rules-based order in the region. Cmde. Singh warns that if China gains control of these critical maritime chokepoints, the Indian Ocean will no longer remain free and open, and China will have the ability to dictate terms in the region.
Countering China’s Maritime Strategy
Despite China’s growing maritime power, Cmde. Singh points out that China has significant vulnerabilities, particularly in projecting power beyond its immediate waters. China’s naval geography is constrained by the first and second island chains in the Pacific, which can act as barriers to Chinese naval expansion. These narrow waters limit China’s ability to operate freely in the open ocean.
The Indian Ocean, by contrast, offers China the sea-space it needs to project maritime power and challenge the U.S. and its allies globally. Gaining access to the Indian Ocean is crucial for China’s long-term strategy, as it provides a gateway to the Atlantic and other global theaters. However, Cmde. Singh notes that India has a significant advantage in the Indian Ocean, particularly when it comes to economic leverage. The so-called “Malacca Dilemma,” where India could potentially choke China’s trade routes through the Malacca Strait, remains a key point of vulnerability for Beijing.
India’s challenge, according to Cmde. Singh, is to build the capacity and capability to maintain its advantage in the Indian Ocean. This will require significant investment in naval power, as well as continued development of India’s maritime infrastructure. India cannot afford to lose its edge in the Indian Ocean, as it remains the key battleground where India’s economic and security interests intersect with China’s ambitions.
The conversation between Cmde. Anil Jai Singh and Dr. Sandeep Tripathi provides a comprehensive overview of India’s strategic challenges in dealing with China, both along the LAC and in the maritime domain. While border tensions remain a critical issue, the real contest between the two nations will take place in the Indian Ocean, where China’s growing maritime power poses a direct challenge to India’s economic and security interests. India’s response, according to Cmde. Singh, must be to continue building its naval capacity, strengthen its maritime infrastructure, and maintain its strategic advantage in the Indian Ocean Region.