Cássio E. Zen
PhD International Law, Universidade de São Paulo
Director, FGS
Researcher GEBRICS – USP
About one month ago center-left Lula da Silva was elected Brazilian president for a third term, in a highly polarized election against his arch-nemesis far right Jair Bolsonaro, who sought a second term. Ever since his defeat, Bolsonaro (who is still president until December 31th) has kept a reclusive posture and has barely spoken in public and the transition team is already in place in Brasilia to prepare for the new government. While there are some groups that challenge the electoral process and have blocked roads demanding a military coup, no court challenge has succeeded and the major political forces inside and abroad have recognized the results.
What can we expect from Lula’s third term as a diplomat? So far the elected president has not presented his full cabinet and maybe it will only be announced after the World Cup ends. However, members of his team have stated that this time the MFA may be led by someone not from the diplomatic career, but someone among Lula’s political allies. However, it is possible to pick up some prospects from Lula’s meetings since he was elected and from his previous terms.
Shortly after the results came in, Lula was congratulated by leaders from all over the world through the phone, but his first visit was from Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández. This is symbolic of one of the first things we can expect from Lula’s third term: a closer cooperation with Latin America, especially Mercosul. The recent left-leaning governments from different Latin American countries have somewhat isolated the Brazilian far-right government and that may change.
The second major change in Brazilian foreign policy is regarding the BRICS. Under Bolsonaro’s government, Brazil has had a rather cold relationship with China, to the point where his son (and Brazilian congressman) has had a verbal spar with the Chinese Embassy in Brasilia, but at the same time had close cooperation with India, the last country visited by Bolsonaro before COVID-19. This India-Brazil relationship is likely to continue under Lula’s government as both countries share cooperation in different areas. Regarding Russia, Brazil has had a close cooperation with the country to the point when Bolsonaro was one of the last leaders to visit Putin, before the invasion of Ukraine. Currently Brazil is trying to balance a good relationship with Russia while at the same time criticizing Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Maybe Lula’s notorious diplomatic tact may help to reconcile Ukranians and Russians if Brazil adopts a neutral stance. Regarding South Africa, the cooperation is likely to increase, as Brazil has sought a close relationship with the African continent during Lula’s first two terms.
The third aspect from Lula’s third term that we will likely see is a more proactive approach to global issues. While under Bolsonaro’s “Brazil above everything and God above everyone” the country took a more nationalistic anti-globalization approach and had few close relationships (with US’s Trump government, but not so close with Biden’s government, with Hungary’s Orban and with Israel’s Netanyahu’s), under Lula’s third term it is expected a focus on multilateral institutions that were severely criticized under Bolsonaro. Lula’s invitation to the COP Meeting in Egypt is a clear sign of that. The feeling in the country is that we are opening ourselves to the world and the sense of being a part of the global family of nations is coming back with the World Cup, the stage where Brazil usually shines.