US president’s remark that US will intervene militarily in case Taiwan is attacked is encouraging but the million-dollar question is- will the other countries Quad follow suit
The Russo-Ukraine war which enters its third month has raised the possibility of China doing a Ukrainian thing in Taiwan. China ever since the communist revolution of October 1949 has professed to take back the ‘recalcitrant’ province by force if necessary. However has so far desisted from overtly using force to invade and take over Taiwan. To make matters complicated for China, US enacted the Taiwan relations act, 1979 which allows USA despite not maintaining official diplomatic ties with the island nation—state to provide American military support to Taiwan under the doctrine of Strategic Ambiguity.
While the status quo remains intact, what has changed the situation on the ground is the eye-brow raising remarks of the US president Joe Biden who said that in the event of China invading Taiwan US will intervene militarily to defend the sovereignty of the island nation. Without an iota of doubt, China reacted strongly, arguing that US stop backing separatist forces and scrupulously stick to the one- China principle. All these interesting developments happened at the recent Quad summit held in Tokyo. The most important issue at hand is whether the rest of the Quad countries are willing to change the line vis-a-vis Taiwan and develop broader ties with the country. Let’s start with India.
India has been at loggerheads with its northern neighbour for the last four or more decades over the unresolved border, the problem of unresolved borders has led to the 1962 border war, numerous faceoffs over the years, the latest of which is the standoff with Chinese troops at the Pangong Tso since 2020 resulting in the June 2020 Galwan clash and the subsequent impasses at different finger points. In that context it has been contemplated in Indian policy circles that for the purpose of controlling the dragon a broader development of ties with Taiwan are the need of the hour. Next is Japan, the country is locked in the Diaoyu-Senkaku island dispute for well over seven decades with no resolution in sight. Further China is flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea region. This has prompted Japan to bolster its military spending despite the constitutional promise of not militarizing the country. Japan may too have thought of developing greater ties with Taiwan but there is again the issue of trade- China is the second largest trade partner of Japan and a substantial destination for exports and imports of Chinese goods. Therefore Tokyo too has poured cold water over this proposal. The next country is Australia, now this is a country which has really locked horns with the dragon. Ties between Beijing and Canberra have plunged inter alia Beijing’s human rights record on one hand, Canberra’s call for an impartial international probe into the origins of the SARS-COV-2 which unleashed the COVID-19 pandemic in the world, Australia supporting the prosecution of the Chinese telecom giant Huawei and its ban in Australia. Further the failure of ex Australian premier Scott Morrison to prevent Solomon Islands from inking a security pact with China led to a literal change of guard in the country. But commerce is still the elephant in the room. China is Australia’s largest trade partner and has retaliated with exports on certain Australian products; certainly Australia is feeling the pinch.
Last but not the least is America. America for long has excoriated Beijing over a host of issue ranging its questionable autocratic political institutions, trade practices to its espionage activities, but commerce again comes into the picture. Both USA and China are so deeply economically intermeshed with each other that a trade war let alone an all out conventional war can wreck havoc on global economics, growth and may jeopardize the fragile growth of the world economy. Hence it is time that if Quad countries are really concerned about ‘containing’ China to use George Kennan’s quote in this context then they should seriously consider furthering ties with the island nation. Size doesn’t always matter, what matters is willpower and resolve.