“We did not go to Afghanistan to nation build” – was the statement given by US President Joe Biden from the White House , addressing the huge rush of criticism regarding the troops pull out in Afghanistan. There have many commentaries on what it will mean to the peace and security of the nation, with a resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. But the more important question is how it will affect the entire geopolitical dynamics of the South Asian neighbors. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar earlier this week, had an interaction with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken , expressing the paramount need of a “negotiated political settlement”.
There are few arguments as to why the conjecture regarding the fall of Afghanistan can be problematic for the United States policy of shifting its national security agenda entirely towards the Indo Pacific. China, recently was seen hosting a nine member Taliban delegation. The statement of Foreign Minister Wang Yi , calling Taliban “ a pivotal force in Afghanistan” , highlights to the apparent attempts made by Beijing , to utilize the vacuum which is about to set in Afghanistan. China, has already claimed that the withdrawal of the US troops, is a failure. The negotiating table between Taliban and Beijing can back-fire the entire logical claim of United States foreign policy regarding Afghanistan. But the announcement of a new quadrilateral platform with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, argues that United States is not entirely thinking of leaving this geopolitical arena.
Chinese expansionist tendencies have severely deteriorated its relations with East Asian countries. Its history of territorial claims with regards to its regional and maritime neighbors cannot be left unchecked with its growing dominance in the Indo Pacific and even in the larger South Asian politics. India , being a major influencing power in South Asia , needs to utilize this position and not let its guards down with respect to its northern neighbors. The entire politics of countering the Belt Road Initiative of China and its presence in the Gwadar port will be severely challenged, if there is a resurgence of a Taliban led Afghanistan. India’s interests in maintaining peace and stability in Afghanistan, comes from larger geopolitical motivations. Though the possibility of a complete takedown is still a hypothesis, but the nature of Talibani dominance near Kabul, is significant to be ready for a civil war breaking out and destabilizing the entire South Asia. Hence, making sure that peace negotiations with Taliban and the Civilian government happens in a constructive manner, along with the support of various geopolitical stakeholders is of paramount importance.