Editorial Note: This blog post was written before the operation “Sindoor”.
-Written by Raghu U, Political Science Student at Madras Christian College, India
Email Id :raghu.u9198@gmail.com
Kashmir, for so long a land of sorrow and beauty, finds itself caught yet again at the center of a violent storm. A vicious attack in the peaceful town of Pahalgam is not only breaking lives but also propelling India and Pakistan closer to another perilous conflict. The world observes warily as old wounds are reopened, praying that history is not repeated.
A fresh tragedy unfolded at Pahalgam:
On 22nd April 2025, an otherwise tranquil holiday town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir suddenly transformed into a nightmare. Gunmen fired indiscriminately at a crowd, and 26 innocent people were killed and 17 were injured. It was the bloodiest civilian attack on the area for more than 20 years.
The Resistance Front (TRF-A, a militant group in Pakistan creating insurgencies in the Jammu and Kashmir region), a group connected to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), soon claimed responsibility. For Indians, it was a bitter reminder that peace for Kashmir remains fragile, after intervals of calm.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi strongly reacted, vowing to “hunt down” terrorists and deliver justice. India closed its major land route to Pakistan within a matter of hours, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, and blamed Pakistan for cross-border terrorism.
Pakistan retaliated by suspending the Shimla Agreement, one of the vital agreements signed at Shimla following the Indo-Pakistani War of 1972. As both sides nullified major agreements, the threat of an escalated war is now there.
A very long history of conflict:
To grasp why Kashmir makes so many people so angry, we have to look to 1947. When British India was split between India and Pakistan, Kashmir, which was a region that was predominantly Muslim and ruled by a Hindu king, was the site of a massive conflict. When the king chose to accede to India, Pakistan intervened, and the first Indo-Pakistani war ensued.
A United Nations ceasefire split Kashmir between India and Pakistan. India occupies one-half, and Pakistan occupies the other. But both claim it entirely. Since then, they have fought several wars (including 1947, 1965, 1971, and the 1999 Kargil war) and numerous border skirmishes.
It all got even riskier with both Pakistan and India acquiring nuclear arms. All conflicts now have the potential to escalate to something much larger and more deadly.
Kashmir’s Struggles Continue:
Kashmir is at the center of this acrimonious rivalry. In 2019, India abolished Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. The government claimed that this would make the territory more integrated into India. But many Kashmiris took this as an act of betrayal. Pakistan declared it illegal and assured that it would stand with Kashmiris.
Kashmir has remained heavily guarded since 2019. People have been arrested for their political beliefs and the redrawing of electoral constituencies. Though violence had eased somewhat, the attack on Pahalgam indicates that peace remains an elusive dream.
Dangerous Diplomatic Moves:
The aftermath of the Pahalgam attack came quickly and abruptly. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is especially alarming. This 1960 treaty, negotiated by the World Bank, survived even wars. It demonstrated that even after everything, both nations could work together on something as essential as water. By cancelling it, India is signalling that it has lost patience.
India also recalled Pakistan’s Delhi-based top envoy and made visa norms stricter for Pakistani citizens. Pakistan, which is facing economic hardships and an unstable government, withdrew from the Shimla Agreement. That strips away another significant hurdle that kept the two sides at peace, however tenuously.
A greater regional threat:
It is a time of crisis for both Pakistan and India. There are several challenges confronting both countries. India is experiencing tensions along its Chinese border, particularly in Ladakh. Pakistan is fighting terrorism within its borders and is economically struggling.
At the same time, China’s increasing influence in the area, using the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), further complicates issues. Pakistan’s getting closer to China makes India anxious, and Pakistan feels that India is moving closer to the United States.
While both nations are preoccupied and enraged, the potential for miscalculation increases.
A fragile future:
The Pahalgam attack has again demonstrated how readily Kashmir may trigger a major crisis. The Indus Waters Treaty and the Shimla Agreement are now suspended. Two significant safety nets are now gone. The risk of a full-blown conflict, even war, is now extremely real.
It is a time of anxiety for the millions residing in Kashmir and for those throughout South Asia. Fears are that what begins as minor border conflicts may escalate to something much larger.
The world needs to take notice. When India and Pakistan, both nuclear weapons states, engage in war again, it may have an international impact. Currently, the best hope is that both sides practice restraint. But historical experience shows that peace is tentative in Kashmir and elsewhere, and patience wears thin fast.
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