The upcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka on September 21, 2024, is indeed pivotal for both India and Sri Lanka nation and its regional relationships. Sri Lanka’s political landscape is at a crossroads, and each candidate—Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sajith Premadasa, and Ranil Wickremesinghe—brings different visions for the country. This election stands out because of its potential implications on India’s overall foreign policy towards the region. The stakes are high because opponents such as Anura Kumara Dissanayake, head of National People’s Power, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and sitting president Ranil Wickremesinghe are in the race. Each candidate has a different vision for the geopolitical future and plans for Sri Lanka. The stability of India’s relationship with Sri Lanka is integral to maintaining regional peace, given the political turbulence in Bangladesh, and rising anti-Indian sentiments in Maldives. This comes among other grave concerns posed by neighbouring countries. Sri Lanka’s President has a significant authority as the head of state, government, cabinet, and military forces. Though, the prime minister has a degree of influence, but this is mainly through deciding whom to position in the cabinet, and that he will carry out with the mere approval of the president.
India has always shown an interest in the political system of Sri Lanka. The kind of political and economic upheaval that is currently sweeping much of South Asia, Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has assumed a much greater importance for India. The island nation is currently one of India’s most vital regional allies, considering that several of its neighbours are presently afflicted with internal conflict or are moving further from India’s sphere of influence. Sheikh Hasina had been a trusty ally, an anchor against religious extremism and anti-Indian sentiment – until she suddenly quit and flew to India in the face of violent protests. The Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu as a President, a man who had catapulted into national prominence through an anti-India campaign and has since advocated the evacuation of Indian soldiers, adding another layer of complication to India’s foreign policy with its regional neighbours. While Muizzu attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the drift of his actions suggests yet another shift in favour of China, putting further strains on India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, since 2021, the Taliban has ruled Afghanistan, and rebels have been in control of half of Myanmar, where a civil war is still raging. Pakistan is also seeing its own dose of political chaos after the resignation of the previous Prime Minister Imran Khan and a crashed economy. Thus, the upcoming presidential polls in Sri Lanka assumes serious importance for India as it would have a direct impact on the dynamics with the country that is now increasingly finding it difficult to maintain its supremacy in the region.
The proximity of the island to India is yet another noteworthy factor contributing to India’s interest in the elections in Sri Lanka. Both Sri Lanka and India are home to sizable Tamil populations. These populations share familial relationships in addition to linguistic and cultural traits. Events on the other side of the Palk Straits have been influenced by politics on both sides. Furthermore, Sri Lanka is close to several of India’s most important scientific and security facilities, including nuclear power reactors, space research institutes, and navy bases, which are situated in southern India. India’s main priority has been to make sure that no foreign state, particularly one it considers adversarial, has undue influence over Sri Lanka. China has been the foreign power that India is most leery of for the past fifteen years, which has led India to back Sri Lankan politicians who are either critical of or opposed to China’s expanding influence. Within Colombo’s political circles, word has it that India backed former army chief Sarath Fonseka in the 2010 presidential race and Maithripala Sirisena of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in the 2015 presidential election. India decided to back the two candidates since Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had collaborated extensively with China for ten years, was running against them. It is safe to assume, therefore, that among the front-runners in this election, India will also back the candidate who is least likely to support or oppose China.
With several strong contenders running for the top position, the result of this election could change Colombo’s approach to diplomacy with New Delhi. While each candidate presents a unique view of Sri Lanka’s place in the world., India stands at a crucial crossroads. The set alignments of foreign policy of Sri Lanka by the alliances of National People’s Power, led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake, present an interesting challenge to his political legacy based on the ideology of the Marxist-Leninists. For many years, his party assumed that India was a potential supreme leader vying for inconsistent power over the island, not a responsive neighbour.
Another outstanding contender is Sajith Premadas of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, which advocates for a more cautious approach, unlike Dissanayake’s confrontational record. Premadasa, who has supported realism, is the son of the late Ranasinghe Premadasa, who in the 1980s was an opinionated opponent of India’s peacekeeping forces. According to him, Sri Lanka is a non-aligned country with close relations to all the world’s superpowers, including that of India, China, and USA. According to him India and Sri Lanka can geopolitically and strategically work together without disturbing other major powers in the world. He makes sure that the resurgence of China’s power in the region does not ignite flares with India, with whom China is very sensitive. President Ranil Wickremesinghe is next in the list and is an independent candidate already known to be close to India. Wickremesinghe made excellent contacts with India the day he came to power in 2023. India too thinks well of Wickremesinghe’s leadership since he supports New Delhi’s geopolitical objectives, particularly in view of China’s growing influence in Sri Lanka. China is Sri Lanka’s biggest bilateral creditor and has become the face of the story behind its “debt trap” diplomacy. After Colombo failed to pay its debts, Beijing obtained a ninety nine-year lease on the Hambantota port project in 2017, fuelling accusations about China’s opaque financing procedures and predatory economic activity. The next candidate in line is Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), who is a representative of the powerful Rajapaksa family and has frequently stated that he is in favour of keeping relations with India neutral.
Looking into the current scenario, Dissanayake and Premadasa are the front-runners among them, and one of the two men will probably win Sri Lanka’s ninth executive president when the election results be declared on September 22, 2024. Furthermore, India wants to oppose Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, which is why it is participating in the upcoming presidential election. The result of the election has the potential to greatly influence Sri Lanka’s foreign policy trajectory, with Premadasa standing for a pro-Indian viewpoint and Dissanayake more inclined toward China. Although India’s backing of Premadasa is consistent with its larger geopolitical objectives, it is unclear if this will be sufficient to win an election in which the balance of power is tightly contested.
Author: Dr. Pooja Kapoor is an Associate Professor at Bennett University, Greater Noida.