One year has passed since the eruption of violence in the middle East which has, by now, spread over a much wider area involving Lebanon directly and Iran covertly. The war, which began on7th October last year with the heinous and unprovoked attack of Hamas fighters resulting in death of over 1,200 Israelis and taking more than 250 hostages, had caused Israel’s retaliation at a disproportionately larger scale. Israel naturally struck back with a heavy attack in the Hamas’ hide-outs in the Gaza strip. Contrary to the expectations of each side to have a swift and decisive advantage over the other, the conflict prolonged and turned fiercer with the direct entry of Hezbollah from the north and proxy support of Iran to Hamas and Hezbollah, A new dimension was, meanwhile, added to the conflict by the Houthis of Yemen, who targeted the vessels registered in Israel or western countries carrying goods from or to Israel near the strait of Hormuz. The Houthis also, on few occasions, launched missile attacks towards Israel most of which could not, expectedly penetrate Israel’s efficient defence system. However, the conflict has since escalated into a full-blown war between Israel, supported by the USA and its western allies, and Hezbollah, now openly supported by Iran with supply of weaponry but short of regularly attacking Israel except on three occasions-each time after Israel’s razing the Iranian consulate in Damascus on 1st April killing Iran’s military leader General Mohd. Reza Zahedi and ten more, killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the high security area of Tehran on 31st July and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Beirut on 29th September. Israel has so far not responded to the last missile attack by Iran despite the global fear of retaliation.
So far, Israel has not reacted to Iran’s last attack with more than 180 missiles, including some hypersonic ones, probably because it wants to concentrate first on action against Hezbollah and once Hezbollah is crippled, turn the fury against Iran. The Moslem Ummah world over, including the stakeholder Muslim countries in the region, is either silent or has shown only lip-sympathy by issuing mild statements against Israel. This is because many of these stakeholders in the region have either allowed US bases in their territories or are its allies. The feeble statements from the USA urging Israel to end its military action are meaningless in view of the regular grant of huge war- assistance packages by it to Israel. Notwithstanding the US support to Israel, the US marines would not step on the war- theatre as the Biden administration cannot afford to antagonise its public just ahead of elections by receiving the marines in body-bags. However, it is reported that, worried about the huge loss it has suffered from the targeted attacks by Israel, Hezbollah is seeking to negotiate peace through back-door channels. The speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nahib Berri, is reportedly in touch with other stakeholders including Iran and the US, but sans Israel, to broker a truce the likely terms of which have not been disclosed so far. Since Russia and China, two prominent allies of Iran and Hezbollah, are now not in a position to enter the arena directly, the sanctions-hit Iran also doesn’t want to escalate war for the fear of destruction of its nuclear centres and oil installations- its only source of income from China and a handful other allies. Israel too, would like to focus on destroying, or at least crippling, Hezbollah instead of pounding on Iran’s nuclear facilities, an action fraught with the possibility of mass destruction of life and property due to possible radiation leakage. As regards India, she has already made it clear that a stable peace should be negotiated diplomatically as a war doesn’t solve existing problems, instead it creates new ones to be solved later by negotiations only. Her urge for peace, a guiding principle of her foreign policy, is also in her national interest as the prolonging of the conflict will also adversely affect two of India’s projects- the Chabahar Port development and the IMEC, in addition to the likely increase in the cost of crude and maritime trade through a longer route circumventing the African continent giving rise to inflation and related jolts to her buoyant economy.
The intense ground action of Israel combined with pounding bombs on Beirut, has increased the numbers of Lebanese accusing the almost decapitated Hezbollah of harming their country. Also, the inroads made by Mossad in the Hezbollah cadres have weakened the latter. Sensing the public opinion back home, the Lebanese Ambassador to India, Rabie Narsh has, in an interview to Indian media on 9th October, urged India to actively try to broker peace which has good relations with both Lebanon and Israel. Similarly, Netanyahu’s popularity graph has also been declining as has not been able to secure the release of all hostages despite the fierce carpet bombing in the Gaza strip. If at all Israel would act against Iran, it would perhaps be a cyber-attack aimed to de-activate Iran’s vital installations which Israel is probably capable of. Iran too seems to be not in favour of the escalation of conflict which can result in a wide- scale destruction and economic recession in Iran and also world over. It appears that all the threats and counter- threats issued from time to time by the warring parties to escalate the situation to a full-blown world war are just the posturing aimed at their domestic constituencies and an essential part of the information warfare. The conflict will go on, albeit with without further escalation, till a truce is brokered before the US elections which the democrats would like to encash for votes as US is the only country which can effectively call for ending the violence in both theatres of action.
Author :Ambassador J.K. Tripathi worked as a Consul General of India in Sao Paulo (Brazil) as well as the Ambassador of India to Zimbabwe.