The macho and strapping crop of current global politics gasconades many political leaders with their alpha-masculine demeanor. In human history, irrespective of territories, men have been portrayed as the saviors of society, reflecting truly in all walks of life. Our current global politics is no exception. We see the new demiurges with bare chest and alpha walk bragging their virile, laddish body and making sensational and simmering photo shoots in the front line media.
The win of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the recently concluded 2022 elections holds a major significance for the geo-politics of East Asia. The elections were conducted days after Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. The LDP- Komeito collation has won the election with a comfortable majority securing 76 out of 125 seats in the Upper House or House of Councilors. This is a significant win as now the LDP has two- third majority in both the houses of the Japanese Diet which gives it the power to work towards its long stated vision of constitutional revision.
The revision of Japan’s constitution has been a major argument which was being put forward by the LDP since its formation in 1955 and in 2018 they pointed four constitutional claws which they wanted to revise. Among the four claws the revision of Article 9 was seen to be the most controversial. Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe was a strong supporter for bringing amendments in Japan’s Article 9. Post their recent landslide victory, LDP under the leadership of current PM Kishida has articulated that they will work on to achieve Abe’s unfinished goals which can be argued to be the constitutional revision of Article 9.
The Article 9 in the Japanese constitution was embedded in 1947 which explicitly renounced the use of war and maintaining of any war capabilities. It focused more on economic reconstruction and depended on the security provided by the US rather than developing its own capabilities. This pacifist approach in terms of security has been called the Yosida doctrine named after Japan’s first post war PM who drafted this proposition. This has been Japan’s fundamental foreign policy approach mainly until the coming of 21st century, however post that Japan had conducted minor military missions which were not part of the original doctrine.
The LDP under Abe had been very vocal about how Article 9 and its implication on Japan’s security. He had been trying to work to make Japan a “normal state” by realtering how the Japanese Self Defense Forces work. With the threat perception rising from China and North Korea this revision was seen to be an adequate measure which led the LDP to move to revise Article 9 in 2018. However, that did not work out for the LDP as its coalition partner Komeito backed out due to its affiliation with a pacifist Buddhist organization. With LDP’s own seat sharing rising in the present election, gives it more leverage to work towards a revision. But for Article 9 to be revised it will also require a public referendum and the Japanese public were not so supportive of any revision. However, a survey conducted in 2021 by Asahi Shimbun found that 45% backed revision up from 43% while 44% did not want any change down from 46%. However, the major question which rises is that what will any revision in the Japanese constitution have on the security have of the region? Revision of Japanese military capability is seen with great suspicion because as stated with Shinzo Abe previously, Article 9 restricts Japan the right to have a fully functional defense force which includes offensive capabilities. As imperial Japan was the major aggressor during World War II and its offensive in the region has left a major historical scar and any Japanese re-militarization is seen with suspicion.
The recent rise of China is seen with great caution by Japan with both the nations already having historical distrust and recent territorial disputes making the situation worst. During his speech in European Parliament in 2021 Japanese defense minister had stated that China’s military intention are unclear and it has major implication for the world. As pointed by Japan’s deputy cabinet secretary China’s growing push for reunification with Taiwan has brought threat much closer to home. This has led Japan to further upgrade its military capabilities. The Taiwan strait has a great geo-strategic significance for Japan as most of Japanese goods pass through that region. It is due to its major security implication Japan had stated that it might intervene if there is a crisis in the Taiwan strait and revision of Article 9 will make it much easier for Japan.
This has garnered negative attention in China, as Beijing views Japan’s push under LDP to revise the constitution will have major impact on the region’s security. An editorial in the Global Times had stated that if Japan tried to revise its constitution, then it will bring endless trouble. Japan’s statement in regards to Taiwan had also generated a lot of debate as the Chinese Foreign Ministry had stated that Taiwan is not Japan’s business. Therefore, it points that Japan’s growing push in the region is not welcomed by Beijing and with Tokyo under LDP now looking at reworking its constitution will further escalate the issue. With the LDP getting its structural hold in Japanese Diet work towards making Japan a normal state looks much imminent which in return will make the geo-politics of East Asia a much heated one.