Russian state media RIA Novosti recently reported on 14th March 2024, that the Yemeni Houthi rebels claim to have tested a hypersonic missile. These reports were attributed to an unnamed official, who is supposed to be a military official close to the Houthis. As per the report, the official stated that “the group’s missile forces have successfully tested a missile that is capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 8 and runs on solid fuel; Yemen intends to begin manufacturing it for use during attacks in Arabian Seas and Gulf of Aden, as well as against targets in Israel”. This above claim by the Houthis can have various geopolitical as well as security implications in the West Asian region. The Red Sea region and the Gulf of Aden is witnessing an onslaught of Houthi missile and drone attacks on military ships and global commercial vessels. Global sea commerce has taken a hit and the rerouting process has already caused much disruption in the global markets. In response, the US and UK, supported by other international coalition has launched a massive military action against the Houthis and struck several targets linked to Houthis’ deeply buried weapons storage facilities, missile systems and launchers, air defence systems and radars. So even after such massive coalition operations, if the Houthis still make such claims of testing hypersonic missiles, then those claims need to be investigated further.
Hypersonic Missile Threat for Naval Vessels
Hypersonic missiles are those which travel at a speed of more than Mach 5, which is five times the speed of sound, roughly around 3836 miles per hour (mph). The Houthis claims to have tested a Mach 8 system, meaning that their speed is around 6138 mph. Such missiles will be extremely difficult to intercept by present air defence systems which are present on board the naval vessels which are taking part in the coalition. For example, on 5th March 2024, the Houthis fired anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) towards USS Carney (DDG 64) which were successfully identified and shot down. This Arleigh Burke class destroyer operated by the US navy is equipped with Spy-1D phased array radars and Phalanx close-in weapons system (CIWS). In the context of hypersonic weapons, the Spy-1D phased array radars have certain limitations. The main limitation is the range of angles through which the radar beam can be steered, which is between 45 to 60 degrees off the vertical. Anything off limits of these angles degrades the antenna performance. The second limitation deals with the power of the radiation, which gets weakened at higher degrees of angles. The hypersonic missiles are highly manoeuvrable, they can change their altitude and angle of direction at high speeds. Any missile which flies beyond the range of angle of operation for this radar will be hard to detect. Further, the Spy-1D radars don’t allow a target to be reengaged until a kill evaluation is complete. It means that if the radar misses any missile, then the second salvo fire can’t be fired instantly, giving valuable time to allow the missile to cruise towards its target.
Such limitations were observed when on 1st February 2024, the Houthi fired missiles which came very close to the USS Gravely (DDG 107). As per sources, the missile was within a mile of hitting the destroyer. A US official admitted the fact that USS Gravely was not able to detect or intercept this missile sooner. This destroyer uses the same CIWS as operated in all classes of Arleigh Burke destroyers. It’s a concerning event that the warship had to use its last layer of CIWS defence to intercept missile which could have hit it for a delay of a few seconds. In fact, the CIWS used was for the first time that any US destroyer had to deploy to intercept any target so close to it since it started operations against the Houthis. As per reports, this missile was travelling at a speed of 600 mph and was so close that it was likely to hit the destroyer within 4 seconds. Hypersonic missiles tested by Houthis claim to have attained Mach 8 speed, which is around 6138 miles per hour. Therefore, if the US destroyers are so vulnerable at 600 mph speed regime missiles, then they will be definitely hit with 6000 mph regime missiles. The US and its allies at present have no answer to defend against hypersonic missile threats.
Assessment of Houthi claims
Although the Houthis claim to have tested a hypersonic missile. It’s really hard to establish this fact for various reasons. First and foremost, the Houthis being non-state actors and like any other terrorist group lacks the scientific resources, skilled manpower, dedicated institutes & labs, funds etc. to developed such a missile. Much of their current missile capabilities have been supported by Iran. Since 2015, the Iranians have provided key upgrades to Houthi anti-ship missile capabilities. In 2019 the US navy intercepted stateless dhows (boats) in the Arabian sea smuggling Iranian made C802 anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) to Yemen. These missiles reportedly had a range of 300 kms. Further in 2023, the Houthis boasted of possessing Iranian made Quds/352 LACM missiles which has a range of 800 kms.
So, the next obvious question which comes in mind is whether the Houthis are making hypersonic missile claims on the basis of assistance from Iran? On 6th June 2023, Iran claimed to have developed a hypersonic missile named ‘Fattah’ which has a range of 1400 kms and capable of travelling at Mach 15, roughly 11510 mph. However, its manoeuvrability is still under suspicion. Iranian claims were also not verified as they didn’t release any footage of missile launching or hitting any target. The Fattah has been classified as a surface-to-surface two stage medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). It’s powered by two stage solid fuel, similar to what the Houthis have claimed. This gives us an idea that the Houthi missile is not a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) system nor a hypersonic cruise missile (HCM), but more of a Manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MaRV). The use of solid propellent is an indication that it’s not ‘all-powered’, meaning cruising is limited without using atmospheric oxygen as the fuel, typical with air breathing hypersonic weapons. And being a MRBM it is highly vulnerable to exo-atmospheric interception. In short, the Fattah is still under development on aspects of evasive manoeuvring and terminal course correction. Based on the above it can be inferred that the Houthis may have obtained an under developed Fattah for further testing as experts suggest. But an underdeveloped MRBM is easy to intercept and shot down in most of the cases as it follows a predetermined parabolic trajectory. Further the Houthis lack advanced ISR tools, to target moving ships.
As of now both the Whitehouse and US Pentagon spokesperson has also affirmed that the Houthis claim is inaccurate and they don’t have that capability.
Conclusion
Since the Iranian hypersonic missiles are still underdeveloped, the possibility of Houthis possessing the same is ruled out completely. They can test and mass produce Iranian MRBMs and other variants. In rare instance, if Russia or China assists Iran in future for the development of hypersonic weapons, then the situation can alter. Putting aside the claims, the threat of Houthi attacks in the region is serious and needs an effective counter. The hypersonic missile claim may have been made to unsettle the US and its allies to mobilise more force and resources in the region. This in some ways also helps to expand China’s presence in the Indo-pacific. In conclusion, the red sea crisis is getting hotter with each passing day.
Author: Ajay Kumar Das is a student of MA in International Relations, Security and Strategy at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P Jindal Global University, Haryana, India.
Disclaimer – The views and opinions expressed in the commentaries are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Forum for Global Studies.