In international relations, the dynamics between neighboring countries often take unexpected turns, leading to tensions and standoffs that capture global attention. In recent years, The India-Maldives relationship has seen tensions and standoffs due to diplomatic issues influenced by political instability in the Maldives, impacting governance, the rule of law, and ties with India.
Positioned strategically near India’s west coast and a crucial maritime ‘toll gate’, the Maldives is a focal point under India’s Neighbourhood First Policy, providing an opportunity to counter China’s influence in the Indian Ocean region. This unfolding diplomatic saga is shaped by historical ties, strategic interests, and evolving regional dynamics.
Historical and Contemporary Dynamics of India-Maldives Relations:
India and the Maldives have a long history of cultural, economic, and diplomatic relations, with the Maldives traditionally falling within India’s sphere of influence due to geographical proximity. The historical connections between India and the Maldives (ancient Maladveepam), can be traced back to Jatakas and Puranas, which provide evidence of maritime exchanges between the two regions. Despite periods of colonial rule by Europeans in both the Maldives and India, bilateral relations persisted after gaining independence. India was among the first countries to recognize Maldives after its independence in 1965.
A pivotal moment in their shared history was the 1988 Maldives coup attempt, during which India intervened militarily through ‘Operation Cactus’ to safeguard President Maumoon Gayoom and uphold democratic principles in the region. This intervention underscored India’s strategic interest in the stability of the Maldives and its commitment to democratic values. Since the transition to democracy in 2008, India has made significant efforts to cultivate strong relationships across various sectors in the Maldives. However, challenges arose during Yameen’s presidency (2013-2018), including issues about democratic regression and human rights concerns. The election of Solih as President in 2018 marked a notable shift towards bilateral ties with India. Tensions escalated as the Maldivian government pursued an FTA with China despite India’s raised concerns.
The Maldives’ increasing collaboration with China, especially through projects like the BRI, raised strategic worries for India. The Maldives has become a significant ‘pearl’ of China’s strategic “String of Pearls” initiative in South Asia. The India-Maldives standoff has also centered on maritime disputes encompassing EEZs, fishing rights, naval presence, terrorism and piracy.
The ‘India Out’ Initiative and its Implications:
The ‘India Out’ initiative seeks to amplify animosity by instilling skepticism regarding India’s investments, defense partnerships, and security provisions in the Maldives. The current Maldivian government opposes the former administration’s ‘India First’ policy to the extent that the withdrawal of Indian troops was included in Muizzu’s election manifesto. The Maldivian government strongly opposes the Indian military presence, viewing it as a threat to national security and sovereignty.
Indian PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Lakshadweep stirred controversy, worsening strained relations with the Maldives, as three Maldivian deputy ministers made derogatory remarks about India and the Prime Minister, accusing the visit of harming Maldives’ tourism. Following India’s raised concerns, the Maldives government suspended the ministers involved. This incident has led to the cancellation of holiday bookings in the Maldives by many Indian tourists, highlighting the risks associated with hypernationalism in the region.
India-Maldives Bilateral Dynamics:
The Maldives’ geographical proximity to India and its reliance on Indian support in various sectors, including trade, defense, and regional engagement, underscore the intertwined nature of their relationship. India has emerged as the Maldives’ second-largest trade partner, with bilateral trade surpassing USD 300 million in 2021. Additionally, India is a major source of tourists for the Maldives, accounting 11.8% of visitors in 2023. Indians also play a vital role in the Maldives’ workforce, with around 28,000 expatriates holding key positions in healthcare, education, construction, and other sectors. Approximately 125 out of the Maldives’ 400 doctors are of Indian origin, highlighting the deep-rooted connections between the two countries
Prudence in Diplomacy:
Dialogue and diplomatic engagement are crucial for resolving tensions and fostering a constructive partnership between both the nations. While the ‘India Out’ campaign has limited support currently, the Indian government should not take this backing for granted. Cooperation in infrastructure development, maritime security, and sustainable growth can boost stability and prosperity in the region. While the standoff raises regional concerns about India’s role, it also creates tourism opportunities for India. India’s vast coastline features both popular and undiscovered beach destinations along Goa, Kerala, Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Investing in infrastructure and improving connectivity through initiatives like RCS-UDAN could attract tourists to these hidden gems.
The controversy serves as a warning for smaller nations like the Maldives to step cautiously in their relations with neighbors. Impulsive actions could lead Maldives to negative consequences, as seen in other countries’ experiences with debt traps. Despite the controversy, the enduring importance of India in the region highlights the need for the Maldives to prioritize relations with New Delhi. A coordinated approach between India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the Maldives’ ‘India First’ approach is essential for a mutually beneficial partnership.
Author: Jui Marathe is pursuing Masters in International Relations & Strategic Studies from University of Mumbai.
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